Fundamental reasons we are not in a tech bubble:
- Amazon Web Services value has still not been fully captured by the market. In fact, it has compounding effects. SaaS companies being built today get to bootstrap more efficiently using SaaS technologies built on AWS yesterday.
- Mobile continues to be a deflationary pressure on consumers; we get an increasing amount of work and education out of a phone that is getting cheaper. This frees up time and disposable income.
- Exploding global markets are just starting to take advantage of the above two points. As global markets come online, they will have synergistic (NOT highly competitive) effects with preexisting markets.
Are we in a valuation/risk bubble? Maybe, but that is a totally different question.
Valuation/risk is the voting machine. The fundamentals listed above are the weighing machine.